Gold price prediction today: The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict has brought gold back into focus as a safe haven investment and gold rate has been rising for some days now. Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for:Gold Performance:On June 16, spot gold surged to $3,451 in the overnight trade as Iran and Israel stepped up their attacks on each other in the weekend. Gold prices eased as the day progressed on the notion that the ongoing military conflict would be confined.The Wall Street Journal reporting that Tehran has signalled its willingness to deescalate the conflict and resume nuclear talks with the US provided the US does not join the Israeli attacks further boosted the downside pressure on the yellow metal. Reuters also reported the willingness of Iran to de-escalate as conveyed through Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman.Spot gold traded between $3383 and $3451 on Monday. At the time of writing this article, the metal was changing hands at $3398, down nearly 1% on the day. The MCX August gold contract was trading at Rs 99,280, down roughly 1% on the day.Although, reportedly Iran is willing to defuse the conflict, Reuters has cited Iranian State media saying that Iran is preparing for the largest and most intense missile attack in history on Israeli soil.Israeli’s PM Netanyahu, in his direct address to the Iranian people, called for overthrowing the clerical regime. Earlier he said that for three decades, the central threat to Israel’s existence has been Iran’s nuclear programs.Casualties have been reported by both nations as Israel dealt the worst military blow to the Islamic Republic since it was invaded by Iraq in 1980.Spot gold surged 3.68% in the week ending June 13 as the metal rose sharply in the last two trading days of the week on geopolitical concerns emanating from the Middle East due to the Iran-Israel conflict. Gold ETF:Total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 88.85 as of June 13 as ETFs recorded net inflows for the third straight week. Holdings are up 7.25% YTD.Hedge fund managers reduce net bullish gold bets:As per CFTC data, money managers decreased their bullish gold bets by 657 net-long positions to 129,851 in the week ending June 10 as long-only positions fell 772 lots to 164,315 lots. The short-only total at 34,664 was the lowest in 11 weeks.Data roundup:China’s data released on Monday morning were mixed as retail sales (May) came in at 6.4% Vs the estimate of 4.90%, while industrial production (May) at 5.8% lagged the estimate of 6%. Meanwhile, property market data continued to reflect weakness, though jobless rate edged lower from 5.1% to 5% Vs the forecast of 5.1%.US Dollar Index and yields:At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index, at 98, was hovering near a four-year low. Ten-year and thirty-year US yields were up by around 0.65% on inflation concerns due to rising oil prices.Upcoming data and events:Today’s major US data on cards include retail sales advance (May), industrial production (May) and import and export price indices (May).The Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy decision on June 17 wherein it is expected to keep the target rate unchanged at 0.5% amid trade uncertainty. The US Federal Reserve will deliver its monetary policy decision on June 18.Although the FOMC is expected to keep the overnight Fed Fund rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, traders will look forward to clues to possible rate cuts as CPI and PPI data of May have been somewhat comforting. The Bank of England is set to announce its monetary policy on June 19. Traders expect the Bank to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 4.25%; however, the Bank’s hint at possible easing going forward would be the major attraction for traders.Gold Price Outlook:In the very short term, gold moves will depend on the Iran-Israel conflict.US President Trump has confirmed Iran’s inclination to talk about de-escalating the ongoing military conflict. However, Israel also needs to reciprocate. Positive ETF inflows and weakness in the US Dollar also support the yellow metal. Overall, if both Israel and Iran agree to sort out their differences through dialogues and Iran agrees to hold a nuclear deal talk, gold will fall further. In that case, gold can fall to as low as $3228. However, if the situation remains uncertain and the conflict continues, gold will have a good buying support.Overall, as the things stand presently, gold is likely to trade with a slight bearish tilt, though there are multiple factors like fiscal concerns, weaker Dollar, central banks’ buying gold, geopolitical concerns due to wars and conflicts elsewhere, and investors looking for alternatives to the US assets, etc., that are supporting the gold rally.Considering Israel-Iran conflict de-escalation, traders may take a light sell position in the metal for very short-term trading. It is to be noted that US retail sales data and upcoming FOMC meeting will also be on traders’ radar.
- Support is at $3375 (Rs 98,600)/$3328 (Rs 97,200). Resistance is at $3450 (Rs 100,800)/$3500 (Rs 102,200)/$3580 (Rs 104,500).
- In case of worsening Iran-Israel conflict situation coupled with heightened tariff concerns, gold may rise to $3700 (Rs 108,100).
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
